While Western Europe is shifting to the far right, a new wind of hope is surging in the East. From Central and Eastern Europe to the Balkans, people understand what’s at stake and have risen, taking matters into their own hands. However, while the protests that have erupted recently in Slovakia and the ongoing resistance against the Dream Party government in Georgia are centered on a pro-EU stance and clear opposition to Russia—with Slovaks fearing the implications of Robert Fico’s pro-Kremlin policies and Georgians striving to avoid being pulled into Russia’s orbit, especially as the war in Ukraine has set a dangerous precedent—the context in Serbia is different.
The massive protests in Serbia, ongoing for over two months following the collapse of the renovated railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 15 citizens and raised suspicions of corruption, have focused on demanding accountability from the regime, emphasizing democracy, the rule of law, and anti-corruption.
The protests, led by university students, who were joined by their professors, high school pupils and their teachers, parents, grandparents, lawyers, and doctors, have brought the entire country to a halt. There’s a massive institutional boycott that has been taking place for two months: a cessation of all lectures, exams, and other obligations at universities throughout the country.
On December 22, 2024, an estimated 100,000 people gathered at the Slavija Square in Belgrade, surpassing the size of the October 2000 protests that brought down the former Yugoslav authoritarian leader Slobodan Milošević. On December 31, under the slogan “There is no New Year, you still owe us for the old one,” citizens in Serbia turned the New Year’s Eve celebration into a mass protest. The event was marked by 15 minutes of silence at 11:52—the time of the canopy collapse that claimed innocent lives—followed by shouts of both celebration and protest.
On January 24, a nationwide strike was called. Thousands again showed up across the country. While protests have been taking place every other day in different cities in Serbia, on January 27, the call for a 24-hour blockade of the Autokomanda junction, one of Belgrade’s key sections of the road network that connects the E75 highway with inner-city roads and the rest of Serbia, resulted in a massive turnout of protesters.
The scene is more than hopeful, it is inspiring, and calls for solidarity: there are farmers who have joined the students seen cooking meals for everybody; students playing, others singing, dancing, or merely assisting each other, preserving a high spirit and a sense of collectivity in a system that seeks to make people feel alone, afraid, and therefore submissive to oppression. These protests are radical, and the students have done their homework: there are no divisive statements, no nationalistic symbols or flags, and they’re not allowing opposition members to hijack their struggle for political gain. This is a new generation, one that did not experience Yugoslavia as it is often romanticized to this day, or the monster that it became under Milošević. This is the generation of TikTok and Instagram, interconnected on a global scale, following their international peers and their struggles in democratic countries, demanding the same equality, justice, freedom, and dignity of life. There is no compromise with them. They understand that whatever happens now will be their responsibility and consequences to face in the future; the tables have turned.
Thus, they refuse to meet with the government, and instead insist that their demands are met firmly. These include: 1) transparency concerning all documentation regarding the reconstruction of the Novi Sad railway station; 2) identification of and initiation of criminal proceedings against individuals involved in physically attacking student protesters; 3) dismissal of criminal charges against student protesters; 4) 20% budget increase for education.
The regime seems weak, disoriented, unable to contain the massive wave that’s coming against it. President Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) even staged a rally in Jagodina, a city in central Serbia, on January 23, in what seems to be a desperate effort to assert legitimacy. This did not force student protesters and the rest of the citizens to back down. Neither did threats, intimidation, smear campaigns, bribe offers, accusations of treason, physical violence, or portrayals of the protests being externally orchestrated. In fact, they have only strengthened the resistance – the protests have grown larger, attracting even those who were initially suspicious of their impact, now resembling more of what, perhaps, could become an uprising.
On January 28, following the 24-hour blockade of the Autokomanda junction, Serbia’s Prime Minister Miloš Vučević (SNS), and Novi Sad’s mayor Milan Đurić (SNS) resigned as a result of the ongoing protests.
It’s important to highlight that the EU is neither supporting the students nor acknowledging the protests. This undermines its credibility and calls into question its normative role. A change in the EU’s approach towards Vučić’s government in the given context—by showing diplomatic and financial support for the protesters, sanctioning officials who have failed to address the violence against student protesters, and incentivizing regional players and international actors to pressure the Serbian government—could accelerate the conditions for a possible regime change. However, this would require the EU to move away from its stabilitocratic, bilateral, and deal-driven approach in the region, as seen particularly in the case of the EU-Serbia lithium deal.
There are three possible scenarios surrounding the challenge faced by the Vučić regime:
1) peaceful collapse of the current government and regime change, which could lead to greater democratization; a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy, its breaking away from Russia’s influence, and genuinely embracing the EU path, with a commitment to the rule of law, freedom of speech, free and fair elections, and a new approach to relations with neighboring countries, particularly Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Thus, shifting away from Vučić’s warmongering, destabilizing, and ultranationalist course in the region. This, certainly, is the most hopeful scenario. However, for it to materialize, it is crucial to identify who can claim responsibility and leadership, while formulating a long-term plan that extends beyond the current protests. Otherwise, the possibility of a power vacuum would risk creating further instability, and even worse, the potential for other regressive forces to fill that vacuum.
2) The protests eventually fade away, and authoritarianism deepens. The government responds with a harsher crackdown on democratic voices and spaces, tightening even more its control over institutions, stifling dissent, and further eroding civil liberties. Consequently, this could lead to Serbia’s isolation from the democratic world, leaving it vulnerable to a greater influence of external regressive actors like Russia and China, especially given the EU’s failed conditionality and foreign policy in the region. This would not only have harmful consequences within Serbia but would also affect regional peace and stability.
3) In a third scenario, Vučić’s regime holds its ground, but its authoritarian decline happens gradually. Initially, the regime might appear softer and more willing to compromise, offering concessions and rewards. However, the eventual outcome would still be increased oppression and a recipe for future destabilization.
It remains to be seen whether the protests will manage to turn into a general uprising and lead to regime change. However, one thing is certain: Aleksandar Vučić’s regime has never faced this level of contestation and insecurity. Furthermore, the people have come to realize, on a massive scale, that the regime cannot be trusted and when life and dignity are lost because of it, then there is nothing else left to lose, only gain. For this reason and more, the protesters deserve full solidarity and support.